Writings
I think and write about many things, but nowadays my focus has been the economics of transformative AI. If interested, I write about it at Sapere Aude.
AGI Economics
Two Tiers of Model Intelligence
Frontier capability inelastic to cost versus commoditized task intelligence competing on price, and what that split means for lab capex. With the live Cost x Capability Frontier from Theseus Capital.
Open-Source Models and the AI Revenue Squeeze
Open weights probably will not kill compute demand. They squeeze what each unit of compute earns, while the debt and leases that paid for it stay fixed. With the charts rebuilt live.
Working Concept: Neo-Institutionalization
Where value accrues once agents reliably produce economic output: to the intelligence provider and the institution that adopts it, with the application layer squeezed out. Includes the live AI Economic Viability Frontier.
Token Cost per Economically Viable Output
A primitive for measuring AI's economic impact: for which outputs has expected production cost fallen below willingness to pay, and how fast is that frontier moving?
Universal Small Business (USB)
Why a post-AGI world calls for universal entrepreneurship over universal basic income.
Miscellaneous
Retrieval as Belief Propagation
A Theseus Labs research note on grounding an investment agent's decisions in an explicit, internally consistent set of beliefs. A query injects activation into a typed graph of principles; it spreads and decays along weighted edges, and contradictions cancel before they reach the model. (Research note, Theseus Holdings.)
On Early Hiring
Principles for assembling an early team: why the team you build is the company you build, and what to actually look for in the first few hires.
Collective Intelligence
Building CoIntel: an AI operating system designed to extend human thinking rather than replace it, grounded in Heidegger, Weiser, and the Extended Mind hypothesis.
A Heideggerian Response to the Meaning of Life
A synthesis of Heidegger, Plato, and Aristotle on what makes life meaningful: confronting finitude while striving toward the eternal.
The Intelligible Self
Nine questions on identity, purpose, happiness, love, and transcendence, with my best attempts at answers.
Evaluating the Soundness of Leibniz's Cosmological Argument for God's Existence
A philosophical evaluation of Leibniz's first cause argument, its soundness, and three objections from free will, infinite regress, and quantum physics.
Don't Trust the Experts
On why we defer only to experts holding mainstream opinions, and how that dismissal of bold visions is withering definite optimism. (Draft.)
The Third Layer: Human Consciousness in the Age of AI
How the continual integration of human and machine intelligence reshapes our sense of agency, self, and consciousness, with an eye toward AI-powered brain-computer interfaces.
The “Network State” of Higher Education
A critique of collapsing institutions and a vision for what comes next.
In progress: Cosmological Imperative · Hegel in the Valley · Blockchain as a Philosophical Project · Algorithmic Homogenization